Association of risk analysis index with 90-day failure to rescue following major abdominal surgery in geriatric patients.

BACKGROUND: Failure to rescue (FTR) is a quality metric defined as mortality after potentially preventable complications after surgery. Predicting patients who are at the highest risk of mortality after a complication may aid in preventing deaths. Thirty-day follow-up period inadequately captures postoperative deaths; alternatively, a 90-day follow-up period has been advocated. This study aimed to examine the association of a validated frailty metric, the risk analysis index (RAI), with 90-day FTR (FTR-90). METHODS: Patients aged ≥65 years who underwent a major abdominal operation between 2014 and 2020 at a quaternary care center were abstracted. Institutional data were merged with the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) and Geriatric Surgery Research File variables. The association between RAI and FTR-90 was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 398 patients with postoperative complications were included. Fifty-two patients (13.1%) died during the 90-day follow-up. The FTR-90 group was older (median age: 76 vs 73 years, respectively; P = .002), had a greater preoperative American Society of Anesthesiologists classification score (P < .001), and had a higher ACS NSQIP estimated risk of morbidity (0.33% vs 0.20%, P < .001) and mortality (0.067% vs 0.012%, P < .001). The FTR-90 group had a greater median RAI score (23 vs 19; P = .002). The RAI score was independently associated with FTR-90 (odds ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.0042-1.0770; P = .028) but not with FTR-30 (P = .13). CONCLUSION: Preoperative frailty, as defined by RAI, is independently associated with FTR at 90-day follow-up. FTR-90 captured nearly 60% more deaths than did FTR-30. Frailty has major implications beyond the typical 30-day follow-up period, and a longer follow-up period must be considered.

Safety of postdischarge extended venous thromboembolism prophylaxis after hepatopancreatobiliary surgery.

BACKGROUND: The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) after hepatopancreatobiliary (HPB) surgery is high. Extended postdischarge prophylaxis in this patient population has been controversial. This study aimed to examine the safety of postdischarge extended VTE prophylaxis in patients at high risk of VTE events after HPB surgery. METHODS: Adult patients risk stratified as very high risk of VTE who underwent HPB operations between 2014 and 2020 at a quaternary care center were included. Patients were matched 1:2 extended VTE prophylaxis to the control group (patients who did not receive extended prophylaxis). Analyses compared the proportions of adverse bleeding events between groups. RESULTS: A total of 307 patients were included: 103 in the extended prophylaxis group and 204 in the matched control group. Demographics were similar between groups. More patients in the extended VTE prophylaxis group had a history of VTE (9% vs 3%; P = .045). There was no difference in bleeding events between the extended VTE prophylaxis and the control group (6% vs 2%; P = .091). Of the 6 patients with bleeding events in the VTE prophylaxis group, 5 had gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, and 1 had hemarthrosis. Of the 4 patients with bleeding events in the control group, 1 had intra-abdominal bleeding, 2 had GI bleeding, and 1 had intra-abdominal and GI bleeding. CONCLUSION: Patients discharged with extended VTE prophylaxis after HPB surgery did not experience more adverse bleeding events compared with a matched control group. Routine postdischarge extended VTE prophylaxis is safe in patients at high risk of postoperative VTE after HPB surgery.

Long-term surveillance of branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms without worrisome or high-risk features.

INTRODUCTION: Long-term data evaluating clinical outcomes in patients with branch-duct Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMN) without high-risk stigmata (HRS) or worrisome features (WF) remain limited. METHODS: This observational cohort study included all patients diagnosed with BD-IPMN without HRS or WF between 2003 and 2019 who were enrolled in a prospective surveillance program. Time-to-progression analysis was performed using a cumulative incidence function plot and survival analysis was conducted using Kaplan-Meier. RESULTS: The median follow-up time for the 267 patient cohort was 44.5 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 24.1-72.2). Radiographic cyst growth was observed in 123 (46.1%) patients; 65 (24.3%) patients progressed to WF/HRS. Twenty-six (9.7%) patients were selected for resection during surveillance: 21 (80.8%) WF, 4 (15.4%) HRS; 1 (3.9%) transformed to mixed-duct. Of all the patients who underwent resection, 5 (19.2%) had adenocarcinoma, and 1 (3.8%) had carcinoma-in-situ. The probability of any radiographic progression was 21.3% (5-year) and 51.3% (10-year). For the entire cohort, there was 1.1% mortality secondary to pancreatic adenocarcinoma and 8.2% all-cause mortality. The 5-year overall survival rate was 91.5%, and at 10 years, 81.5%. CONCLUSION: Approximately one in four patients with nonworrisome BD-IPMN have progression to WF/HRS stigmata during surveillance. However, the risk of malignant transformation remains low. Surveillance strategy remains prudent in this patient population.

Impact of Medicaid Expansion on Abdominal Surgery Morbidity, Mortality, and Hospital Readmission.

INTRODUCTION: Medicaid expansion's (ME) impact on postoperative outcomes after abdominal surgery remains poorly defined. We aimed to evaluate ME's effect on surgical morbidity, mortality, and readmissions in a state that expanded Medicaid (Virginia) compared to a state that did not (Tennessee) over the same time period. METHODS: Virginia Surgical Quality Collaborative (VSQC) American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data for Medicaid, uninsured, and private insurance patients undergoing abdominal procedures before Virginia's ME (3/22/18-12/31/18) were compared with post-ME (1/1/19-12/31/19), as were corresponding non-ME state Tennessee Surgical Quality Collaborative (TSQC) data for the same 2018 and 2019 time periods. Postexpansion odds ratios for 30-d morbidity, 30-d mortality, and 30-d unplanned readmission were estimated using propensity score-adjusted logistic regression models. RESULTS: In Virginia, 4753 abdominal procedures, 2097 pre-ME were compared to 2656 post-ME. In Tennessee, 5956 procedures, 2484 in 2018 were compared to 3472 in 2019. VSQC's proportion of Medicaid population increased following ME (8.9% versus 18.8%, P < 0.001) while uninsured patients decreased (20.4% versus 6.4%, P < 0.001). Post-ME VSQC had fewer 30-d readmissions (12.2% versus 6.0%, P = 0.013). Post-ME VSQC Medicaid patients had significantly lower probability of morbidity (-8.18, 95% confidence interval: -15.52 ∼ -0.84, P = 0.029) and readmission (-6.92, 95% confidence interval: -12.56 ∼ -1.27, P = 0.016) compared to pre-ME. There were no differences in probability of morbidity or readmission in the TSQC Medicaid population between study periods (both P > 0.05); there were no differences in mortality between study periods in VSQC and TSQC patient populations (both P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: ME was associated with decreased 30-d morbidity and unplanned readmissions in the VSQC. Data-driven policies accounting for ME benefits should be considered.

Performance of risk prediction models for post-operative mortality in patients undergoing liver resection.

BACKGROUND: Liver resection is commonly performed for hepatic tumors, however preoperative risk stratification remains challenging. We evaluated the performance of contemporary prediction models for short-term mortality after liver resection in patients with and without cirrhosis. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study examined National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data. We included patients who underwent liver resections from 2014 to 2019. VOCAL-Penn, MELD, MELD-Na, ALBI, and Mayo risk scores were evaluated in terms of model discrimination and calibration for 30-day post-operative mortality. RESULTS: A total 15,198 patients underwent liver resection, of whom 249 (1.6%) experienced 30-day post-operative mortality. The VOCAL-Penn score had the highest discrimination (area under the ROC curve [AUC] 0.74) compared to all other models. The VOCAL-Penn score similarly outperformed other models in patients with (AUC 0.70) and without (AUC 0.74) cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: The VOCAL-Penn score demonstrated superior predictive performance for 30-day post-operative mortality after liver resection as compared to existing clinical standards.

Evaluating the Impact of Preoperative Geriatric-Specific Variables and Modified Frailty Index on Postoperative Outcomes After Elective Pancreatic Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Pursuing pancreatic resection in elderly patients is often complex and limited by concern for functional status and postoperative risk. This study examines the associations between two different preoperative functional status metrics with postoperative outcomes in the geriatric population. METHODS: Patients who participated in the ACS NSQIP Geriatric Surgery Research File pilot program (2014-2018) undergoing elective pancreatic operations were included. Two clinically meaningful functional status scores were calculated: the presence of one or more geriatric-specific variable (GSV) and a 5-factor modified frailty index (mFI-5). Multivariable logistic regression adjusting for ACS NSQIP-estimated risk was performed to evaluate associations between preoperative GSV, mFI-5 and 30-day outcome measures. RESULTS: A total of 1266 patients were included: 808 (64%) age 65-74, 302 (24%) age 75-80, and 156 (12%) age ≥ 81; 843 (67%) patients underwent pancreatoduodenectomy. Operations were performed for pancreatic adenocarcinoma in 712 (56%) patients. Older patients had greater likelihood of postoperative morbidity (35% vs 31% vs 47%, by age group, p = 0.004) and discharge to a facility (12% vs 23% vs 48%, by age group, p < 0.001). Adjusting for ACS NSQIP predicted risk, patients with a preoperative GSV were more likely to require reoperation and discharge to a facility (OR 1.81 [95% CI 1.03-3.16] and 3.95 [95% CI 2.91-5.38], respectively). The mFI-5 was not associated with postoperative outcomes (all p ≥ 0.18). CONCLUSION: The presence of a preoperative GSV is associated with reoperation and discharge to a skilled facility following elective pancreatic resection. Geriatric-specific variables should be considered in joint preoperative decision making to optimize care.

Errors in Surgery: A Case Control Study.

OBJECTIVE: While errors can harm patients they remain poorly studied. This study characterized errors in the care of surgical patients and examined the association of errors with morbidity and mortality. BACKGROUND: Errors have been reported to cause <10% or >60% of adverse events. Such discordant results underscore the need for further exploration of the relationship between error and adverse events. METHODS: Patients with operations performed at a single institution and abstracted into the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2018 were examined. This matched case control study comprised cases who experienced a postoperative morbidity or mortality. Controls included patients without morbidity or mortality, matched 2:1 using age (±10 years), sex, and Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) group. Two faculty surgeons independently reviewed records for each case and control patient to identify diagnostic, technical, judgment, medication, system, or omission errors. A conditional multivariable logistic regression model examined the association between error and morbidity. RESULTS: Of 1899 patients, 170 were defined as cases who experienced a morbidity or mortality. The majority of cases (n=93; 55%) had at least 1 error; of the 329 matched control patients, 112 had at least 1 error (34%). Technical errors occurred most often among both cases (40%) and controls (23%). Logistic regression demonstrated a strong independent relationship between error and morbidity (odds ratio=2.67, 95% confidence interval: 1.64-4.35, P <0.001). CONCLUSION: Errors in surgical care were associated with postoperative morbidity. Reducing errors requires measurement of errors.

Efficacy of opioid spinal analgesia for postoperative pain management after pancreatoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Efficacy of single-shot opioid spinal analgesia after pancreatoduodenectomy remains understudied and lacks comparison to standard continuous thoracic epidural analgesia (TEA). METHODS: Pancreatoduodenectomy patients who underwent TEA or opioid spinal for postoperative pain management from 2015 to 2020 were included in this observational cohort study. Primary outcome was patient-reported mean daily pain scores. Secondary outcomes included postoperative morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs) and length of stay (LOS). Multivariable linear regression models were constructed to compare risk-adjusted outcomes. RESULTS: 180 patients were included: 56 TEA and 124 opioid spinal. Compared to epidural patients, opioid spinal patients were more likely to be older (67.0 vs. 64.6, p=0.045), have greater BMI (26.5 vs. 24.4, p=0.02), and less likely to be smokers (19.4% vs. 41.1%, p=0.002). Opioid spinal, compared to TEA, was associated with lower intraoperative MMEs (0.25 vs. 22.7, p<0.001) and postoperative daily MMEs (7.9 vs. 10.3, p=0.03) on univariate analysis. However, after multivariable adjustment, there was no difference in average pain scores across the postoperative period (spinal vs. epidural: 4.18 vs. 4.14, p=0.93), daily MMEs (p=0.50), or LOS (p=0.23). DISCUSSION: There was no significant difference in postoperative pain scores, opioid use, or LOS between patients managed with TEA or opioid spinal after pancreatoduodenectomy.

Electronic health record risk-stratification tool reduces venous thromboembolism events in surgical patients.

Background: Venous thromboembolism is a preventable cause of morbidity and mortality after surgery. To ensure that patients receive appropriate venous thromboembolism chemoprophylaxis, a nonmandatory risk-stratification tool based on patient clinical condition was implemented through the electronic health record to stratify patient risk and recommend chemoprophylaxis. We hypothesized that implementing this tool would reduce postoperative venous thromboembolism events in general surgery as well as across all surgical services. Methods: All adult patients undergoing inpatient surgical operations (January 2012-December 2019) at a single quaternary care center and Level 1 trauma center were abstracted from institutional electronic health record database and stratified into patients admitted before and after venous thromboembolism risk-stratification tool implementation. Bivariable analyses compared venous thromboembolism chemoprophylaxis prescription and venous thromboembolism events with implementation and screening among all surgical patients as well as in general surgery patient subset. Results: A total of 64,377 adults underwent operations: 27,819 preimplementation and 36,558 postimplementation. A significant reduction in venous thromboembolism events occurred from pre- to post-tool implementation for all cases (0.77% vs 0.47%, P < .001). General surgery patients (n = 15,723) had a significant increase in chemoprophylaxis prescription (81.9% vs 86.0%, P < .001) and a significant reduction in venous thromboembolism events (1.41% vs 0.59%, P < .001). After tool implementation, use of extended postdischarge chemoprophylaxis was greater among general surgery patient subset than the entire patient cohort (46.7% vs 29.6%, P < .001). Conclusion: The integration of a nonmandatory electronic health record risk-stratification tool was associated with a significant reduction in venous thromboembolism events. Extended chemoprophylaxis was prescribed in nearly half of general surgery patients at very high risk for postdischarge events.

Management of Synchronous Colorectal Cancer Metastases.

The management of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) has evolved significantly over the last decade owing to advances in aggressive multimodality chemotherapy options, targeted therapy, development of sophisticated operative techniques, and adjunct radiotherapy options. Patients with synchronous CRC require complex decision-making with multidisciplinary collaboration to develop individualized treatment strategies taking into account tumor biology and patients' individual goals and objectives. We will outline important considerations with regard to treatment options for patients with synchronous metastatic CRC to facilitate contemporary evidence-based management decisions and optimize oncologic outcomes.

Early Patient Discharge in Selected Patients is Not Associated With Higher Readmission After Major Abdominal Operations.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to examine the associations between early discharge and readmission after major abdominal operations. BACKGROUND: Advances in patient care resulted in earlier patient discharge after complex abdominal operations. Whether early discharge is associated with patient readmissions remains controversial. METHODS: Patients who had colorectal, liver, and pancreas operations abstracted in 2011-2017 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Participant Use Data Files were included. Patient readmission was stratified by 6 operative groups. Patients who were discharged before median discharge date within each operative group were categorized as an early discharge. Analyses tested associations between early discharge and likelihood of 30-day postoperative unplanned readmission. RESULTS: A total of 364,609 patients with major abdominal operations were included. Individual patient groups and corresponding median day of discharge were: laparoscopic colectomy (n = 152,575; median = 4), open colectomy (n =137,462; median = 7), laparoscopic proctectomy (n = 12,238; median = 5), open proctectomy (n = 24,925; median = 6), major hepatectomy (n = 9,805; median = 6), pancreatoduodenectomy (n = 27,604; median = 8). Early discharge was not associated with an increase in proportion of readmissions in any operative group. Early discharge was associated with a decrease in average proportion of patient readmissions compared to patients discharged on median date in each of the operative groups: laparoscopic colectomy 6% versus 8%, open colectomy 11% versus 14%, laparoscopic proctectomy 13% versus 16%, open proctectomy 13% vs 17%, major hepatectomy 8% versus 12%, pancreatoduodenectomy 16% versus 20% (all P ≤ 0.02). Serious morbidity composite was significantly lower in patients who were discharged early than those who were not in each operative group (all P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Early discharge in selected patients after major abdominal operations is associated with lower, and not higher, rate of 30-day unplanned readmission.

Disparities in telemedicine utilization among surgical patients during COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Telemedicine has been rapidly adopted in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is limited work surrounding demographic and socioeconomic disparities that may exist in telemedicine utilization. This study aimed to examine demographic and socioeconomic differences in surgical patient telemedicine usage during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Department of Surgery outpatients seen from July 1, 2019 to May 31, 2020 were stratified into three visit groups: pre-COVID-19 in-person, COVID-19 in-person, or COVID-19 telemedicine. Generalized linear models were used to examine associations of sex, race/ethnicity, Distressed Communities Index (DCI) scores, MyChart activation, and insurance status with telemedicine usage during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: 14,792 patients (median age 60, female [57.0%], non-Hispanic White [76.4%]) contributed to 21,980 visits. Compared to visits before the pandemic, telemedicine visits during COVID-19 were more likely to be with patients from the least socioeconomically distressed communities (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.08,1.58; P = 0.005), with an activated MyChart (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.17-1.64; P < .001), and with non-government or commercial insurance (OR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.84-2.94; P < .001). Adjusted comparison of telemedicine visits to in person visits during COVID-19 revealed telemedicine users were more likely to be female (OR, 1.38, 95% CI, 1.10-1.73; P = 0.005) and pay with non-government or commercial insurance (OR, 2.77; 95% CI, 1.85-4.16; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: During the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic, telemedicine was more likely utilized by female patients and those without government or commercial insurance compared to patients who used in-person visits. Interventions using telemedicine to improve health care access might consider such differences in utilization.

Determining the Association Between Unplanned Reoperation and Readmission in Selected General Surgery Operations.

BACKGROUND: Unplanned reoperations and unplanned readmissions can increase morbidity and mortality. Few studies however, have explored the association of reoperation and readmission among general surgery patients. Our aim was to examine this relationship in selected abdominal operations. METHODS: Data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Participant Use Data Files from 2014 to 2018 were utilized. Six groups of operations, defined by ACS NSQIP procedure codes for ventral hernia repair, colectomy, appendectomy, proctectomy, small bowel resection, and gastrectomy, were assessed. Patients discharged ≤ 14 days after operation were included in the study. This time period was selected to reduce ACS NSQIP 30 day post-surgery follow-up bias. Unplanned reoperations were defined as those occurring during the index hospitalization. The primary outcome was unplanned readmission that occurred ≤ 14 days from the date of discharge. Logistic regression models were used to examine variables associated with unplanned readmission for each procedure group. RESULTS: A total of 787,118 patients were included: ventral hernia repair 35.2%, colectomy 30.6%, appendectomy 26.5%, proctectomy 3.7%, small bowel resection 3.2%, and gastrectomy 0.8%. Unplanned reoperation was independently associated with unplanned readmission for ventral hernia repair (OR 2.84, 95% CI 2.28-3.54, P < 0.001), colectomy (OR 1.58, CI 1.42- 1.76, P < 0.001), appendectomy (OR 2.91, CI 2.21-3.84, P < 0.001), and proctectomy (OR 1.41, CI 1.10-1.81, P = 0.006). Other clinically relevant covariates associated with readmission were partially dependent functional status before colectomy (OR 1.34, CI 1.23-1.46, P < 0.001), ventral hernia repair (OR 1.79, CI 1.54-2.09, P < 0.001), and small bowel resection (OR 1.44, CI 1.18-1.77, P < 0.001; and ASA 4/5 classification for colectomy (OR 2.71, CI 2.36-3.11, P < 0.001), proctectomy (OR 2.10, CI 1.48-2.97, P < 0.001), ventral hernia repair (OR 8.19, CI 6.78-9.88, P < 0.001), appendectomy (OR 2.80, CI 2.35-3.34, P < 0.001), and small bowel resection (OR 3.42, CI 2.20-5.32, P < 0.001). ASA 2, ASA 3 classification, age, and sex were also associated with unplanned readmission for most procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Unplanned reoperations are associated with an increase in unplanned readmission after selected abdominal operations included in this study. This factor should be considered in discharge and follow-up planning to help reduce unplanned readmissions.

The impact of obesity and severe obesity on postoperative outcomes after pancreatoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: The impact of obesity on postoperative outcomes after pancreatoduodenectomy remains insufficiently studied. METHODS: All pancreatoduodenectomy patients were abstracted from the 2014 to 2018 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data sets and were stratified into the following 3 body mass index categories: non-obese (body mass index 18.5-29.9), class 1/2 obesity (body mass index 30-39.9), and class 3 severe obesity (body mass index ≥ 40). Analyses tested associations between patient factors and four 30-day postoperative outcomes: mortality, composite morbidity, delayed gastric emptying, and postoperative pancreatic fistula. Multivariable logistic regression models tested independent associations between patient factors and these 4 outcome measures. RESULTS: A total of 16,823 patients were included in the study: 12,234 (72.7%) non-obese, 4,030 (24%) obese, and 559 (3.3%) with severe obesity. Bivariable analyses demonstrated significant associations between obesity, severe obesity, and greater proportions of numerous preoperative comorbidities as well as a greater likelihood of postoperative complications, including postoperative pancreatic fistula, delayed gastric emptying, composite morbidity, and mortality (all P ≤ .001). After adjusting for significant covariates, obesity was independently associated with postoperative pancreatic fistula (odds ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval: 1.33-1.67, P < .001), delayed gastric emptying (odds ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.28, P = .004), composite morbidity (odds ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval: 1.18-1.38, P < .001), and mortality (odds ratio 1.79, 95% confidence interval: 1.36-2.36, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Obesity and severe obesity are significantly associated with worse short-term outcomes after pancreatoduodenectomy. Preoperative considerations, such as weight management strategies during individualized treatment planning, could improve outcomes in this population.

Donor Morbidity Is Equivalent Between Right and Left Hepatectomy for Living Liver Donation: A Meta-Analysis.

Maximizing liver graft volume benefits the living donor liver recipient. Whether maximizing graft volume negatively impacts living donor recovery and outcomes remains controversial. Patient randomization between right and left hepatectomy has not been possible due to anatomic constraints; however, a number of published, nonrandomized observational studies summarize donor outcomes between 2 anatomic living donor hepatectomies. This meta-analysis compares donor-specific outcomes after right versus left living donor hepatectomy. Systematic searches were performed via PubMed, Cochrane, ResearchGate, and Google Scholar databases to identify relevant studies between January 2005 and November 2019. The primary outcomes compared overall morbidity and incidence of severe complications (Clavien-Dindo >III) between right and left hepatectomy in donors after liver donation. Random effects meta-analysis was performed to derive summary risk estimates of outcomes. A total of 33 studies (3 prospective and 30 retrospective cohort) were used to identify 7649 pooled patients (5993 right hepatectomy and 1027 left hepatectomy). Proportion of donors who developed postoperative complications did not significantly differ after right hepatectomy (0.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.27-0.40) and left hepatectomy (0.23; 95% CI, 0.17-0.29; P = 0.19). The overall risk ratio (RR) did not differ between right and left hepatectomy (RR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.83-1.63; P = 0.36). The relative risk for a donor to develop severe complications showed no differences by hepatectomy side (Incidence rate ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.67-1.40; P = 0.86). There is no evidence that the overall morbidity differs between right and left lobe donors. Publication bias reflects institutional and surgeon variation. A prospective, standardized, multi-institutional study would help quantify the burden of donor complications after liver donation.

Specialty-Specific Readmission Risk Models Outperform General Models in Estimating Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery Readmission Risk.

BACKGROUND: Readmissions are costly and inconvenient for patients, and occur frequently in hepatopancreatobiliary (HPB) surgery practice. Readmission prediction tools exist, but most have not been designed or tested in the HPB patient population. METHODS: Pancreatectomy and hepatectomy operation-specific readmission models defined as subspecialty readmission risk assessments (SRRA) were developed using clinically relevant data from merged 2014-15 ACS NSQIP Participant Use Data Files and Procedure Targeted datasets. The two derived procedure-specific models were tested along with 6 other readmission models in institutional validation cohorts in patients who had pancreatectomy or hepatectomy, respectively, between 2013 and 2017. Models were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). RESULTS: A total of 16,884 patients (9169 pancreatectomy and 7715 hepatectomy) were included in the derivation models. A total of 665 patients (383 pancreatectomy and 282 hepatectomy) were included in the validation models. Specialty-specific readmission models outperformed general models. AUC characteristics of the derived pancreatectomy and hepatectomy SRRA (pancreatectomy AUC=0.66, hepatectomy AUC=0.74), modified Readmission After Pancreatectomy (AUC=0.76), and modified Readmission Risk Score for hepatectomy (AUC=0.78) outperformed general models for readmission risk: LOS/2 + ASA integer-based score (pancreatectomy AUC=0.58, hepatectomy AUC=0.66), LACE Index (pancreatectomy AUC=0.54, hepatectomy AUC=0.62), Unplanned Readmission Nomogram (pancreatectomy AUC=0.52, hepatectomy AUC=0.55), and institutional ARIA (pancreatectomy AUC=0.46, hepatectomy AUC=0.58). CONCLUSION: HPB readmission risk models using 30-day subspecialty-specific data outperform general readmission risk tools. Hospitals and practices aiming to decrease readmissions in HPB surgery patient populations should use specialty-specific readmission reduction strategies.

Clinical-Radiomic Analysis for Pretreatment Prediction of Objective Response to First Transarterial Chemoembolization in Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The preoperative selection of patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are likely to have an objective response to first transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) remains challenging. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a clinical-radiomic model (CR model) for preoperatively predicting treatment response to first TACE in patients with intermediate-stage HCC. METHODS: A total of 595 patients with intermediate-stage HCC were included in this retrospective study. A tumoral and peritumoral (10 mm) radiomic signature (TPR-signature) was constructed based on 3,404 radiomic features from 4 regions of interest. A predictive CR model based on TPR-signature and clinical factors was developed using multivariate logistic regression. Calibration curves and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate the model's performance. RESULTS: The final CR model consisted of 5 independent predictors, including TPR-signature (p < 0.001), AFP (p = 0.004), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer System Stage B (BCLC B) subclassification (p = 0.01), tumor location (p = 0.039), and arterial hyperenhancement (p = 0.050). The internal and external validation results demonstrated the high-performance level of this model, with internal and external AUCs of 0.94 and 0.90, respectively. In addition, the predicted objective response via the CR model was associated with improved survival in the external validation cohort (hazard ratio: 2.43; 95% confidence interval: 1.60-3.69; p < 0.001). The predicted treatment response also allowed for significant discrimination between the Kaplan-Meier curves of each BCLC B subclassification. CONCLUSIONS: The CR model had an excellent performance in predicting the first TACE response in patients with intermediate-stage HCC and could provide a robust predictive tool to assist with the selection of patients for TACE.